Interesting observation, thanks for sharing this!

"The professor" clearly knows this stuff better than I do, but I find it hard to believe it's mostly psychological. If that was the case, you'd think Jon would start the tour shaky and then gain confidence. Especially after what was by today's standards a relatively strong showing in Greenville, where he even sounded decent on Always (which was a three-year goal of his). But the opposite was the case - as soon as they hit that 3 shows in 4 days span, his voice went down the toilet. I think the opposite is the case - he worked as hard as he could and gave his absolute best effort to start the tour, but the highest level of effort is never sustainable in anything and so his vocal chords (or other body parts responsible for his voice) started failing dramatically. So my money is still on physical reasons, not mental, but what do I know I'm no singer, just a dude who analyzes things...

Also, if he's only basing his analysis on Always performances, that may not be the best idea. Always has always been THE difficult song in the catalogue where Jon goes balls-out with 120% effort, even when his voice was much better in 2008-2011 it was still a struggle for him and now the struggle has increased, but it's not the best representation. I would personally suggest that he or any expert should compare simpler stuff like Bad Name or Bad Medicine, which Jon sings with "normal" (or ~95%) level of effort and used to nail it rather effortlessly, but now is simply unlistenable.


When Richie went to rehab in 2011, Jon's voice was fine. No sign of decline whatsoever. So again, I don't see how that can be the case.