I don't see it as being written about just a friend. Its written about someone he desperately loves.. but can't be with for some reason. He is saying that he will be there forever for them but he is not or can't for many reason love them. He is convincing himself with the lines " I ain't gonna love you" and the last line goes down a notch to almost an admission because he does actually love them. Its brings to my mind a scene where you are telling someone you don't love them and as they walk away you whisper " I love you"
Kat
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"We'll be standing here for the next 100 years"
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