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Originally Posted by RichieW2001
apologies for not looking at the 60year part. at the end of the day, those investing for 60years or so are going to be the big pension funds and insurance companies and not joe public so that doesn't apply to the majority of investors, jon included. and no matter what the timescale, there will be risks if you don't spread you investment. if you had all of your shares in a company that solely produced vhs players (unlikely i know) 20 or so years ago and they were unable to keep up with changes in technology (influx of dvd players into market) and subsequently went out of business, your investment wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on. i know it's all relative in the long term and things balance out eventually but most people don't look at things that far into the future.
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This is not a accepted theory.. But the fact is that the most technical inventions are created with in the big companies, such as Sony, Philips, ABB, and Nokia and so on. How many of the VHS-player producers is gone from the market (the big ones..)? Not that many... they all started to produce DVD-players instead, mostly because it was their invention!
The same with ABB, they were the leader of the High voltage products for a 100 years ago, and they still are.
What actually can flip the market is a techno economic paradigm, but isn't a well accepted theory either.
But of course you are right about that you have to spread your investments, but that's common sense.
And to give the economic system a fair chance, you have to look at it in a wide perspective, otherwise every high and low conjuncture would make it impossible to analyze.
I went even further of topic with this one! And as I said, these theories are not accepted by many (but a few such as schumpeterians...), so don’t take my word for it (even if I tend to believe in them)