I also think it depends on the market they are playing in. Toronto will probably get a kick butt show, it's a place where BJ has a high fan content. Detroit will probably also get a kick butt show, the Palace has been very very good to BJ.
I think places like Omaha, Fargo, Charlotte may get more vanilla hits heavy shows, because the crowds are less familiar with other stuff, and at the end of the day, Jon's point is to entertain the crowd in front of him, not the online audience watching the setlists.