Who Will Win The US Presidential Election?

I am particularly curious about the percentage of voters this year compared to any of the other election years. After all, I've never seen such an emphasis on capturing every single vote --- from all the artists shows to general emails, etc. It's got to be a big difference.

Anybody know what the voter percentage was in the last election?


Distant Americans flocking to cast absentee ballots
Expats might again tip scales in tight presidential race
Elizabeth Bryant, Chronicle Foreign Service

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Paris -- Not once in his 65 years has San Diego native Benny Luke voted in a U.S. election, or spared much thought to partisan battles over health care and the economy raging thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean.

Yet on a sunny afternoon last week, Luke sat carefully filling out an absentee voter form at an American-style diner in downtown Paris.

"I've never considered myself much of anything -- Republican or Democrat," admitted the slight American actor, who came to the French capital 45 years ago and never left.

But like many other Americans living overseas, Luke is making a choice this year. Aware of how important these votes could be in a close, polarized race -- an estimated 4 million to 10 million U.S. residents live overseas --

both Democrats and Republicans are organizing voter registration drives and launching Internet sites from Budapest, Hungary, to Tel Aviv.

When access to a U.S. government Web site for overseas voters (www.fvap.gov) was blocked by the Defense Department last week -- inadvertently, say officials -- both Republicans and Democrats expressed outrage, before the Pentagon hastily fixed the problem.

There is concern that other snafus may limit the overseas vote. According to a survey by the New York Times, election officials in several battleground states failed to mail out "tens of thousands" of absentee ballots by the Sept. 20 cutoff date. Other computer problems also have reportedly slowed the number of registrations from overseas. A new Internet-based system designed to speed up the process is open only to overseas members of the military and their families, the Times reported today.

The problems do not seem to have blunted the overseas efforts, say organizers.

"There's no doubt we're registering massive numbers like we've never had before," said Sharon Manitta, the London-based spokeswoman for Democrats Abroad.

Since 2000, the numbers of chapters of Democrats Abroad has more than doubled, from 30 to 73. There is even an Iraq chapter, nicknamed "Donkeys in the Desert."

Republicans Abroad, which has 50 overseas chapters, also has seen a spike from four years ago.

"People are aware of their power and their potential to influence the outcome of the vote," said Robert Pingeon, chairman of Republicans Abroad Europe. "So they're rushing to register."

The power of the overseas electorate has not been lost on either the Bush or Kerry campaigns. Both have dispatched members of the candidates' families and high-level party officials on international stumps.

"So many states were close last time, and a few votes really made a difference," said Nancy Bush Ellis, aunt of George W. Bush, during a champagne- and-canape reception in Paris last week, sponsored by Republicans Abroad. "They're really after every vote they can get."

Indeed, Republicans credit the expatriate vote for helping to bolster the vote in Florida in the 2000 presidential race, handing Bush his razor-thin, much-disputed victory.

"This time around I think the overseas vote could really be crucial," said Steven Hill, a San Francisco-based analyst for the Center for Voting and Democracy, a nonpartisan research group. "Each side may need just a few more votes in Iowa, or Wisconsin or Florida."

In Israel, Republicans have plastered English-language newspapers with pro-Bush campaign ads, hoping to spark a strong turnout among an estimated 110, 000 eligible American voters. The Republicans Abroad Israel chairman, Kory Bardash, predicts that the numbers of Americans voting this time will more than double, to 35,000, from 2000.

"I believe a significant majority will be voting to re-elect the president," Bardash said. "2000 showed every vote counted. And Israel considers itself the front line on terror, and President Bush has a clear record of fighting terror."

Sentiment among American expatriates in Paris appears to run closer to Western European opinion, which is largely pro-Kerry according to several polls.

"Now, I guess I'm a Democrat, because I really don't want Bush to win," said the formerly unaffiliated Luke.

At a Paris get-out-the-vote rally sponsored by Democrats Abroad, financial analyst Suzanne Masson couldn't recall the last time she cast her overseas ballot.

"Unfortunately, I'm voting against Bush, because I don't feel thrilled about Kerry," said the 51-year-old New York native, who considers herself an independent. "When it comes to the war on Iraq, the administration has opened Pandora's box."

For their part, Republicans contend that the surge of international Bush bashing has helped bolster and close party ranks.

"We have a lot of Republicans who are saying they're fed up with this attitude about Bush, and this time they're going to make an effort and register to vote," said Pingeon of Republicans Abroad.

Eastern Europe is also witnessing a spike in Republican support, particularly among citizens with dual nationality, GOP officials say.

"They're people who moved to the U.S., built up a life, retired and returned," said Stephen O'Connor, chairman of Republicans Abroad Hungary. "They're conservative."

"And my feeling," he added, "is that many Americans who do move abroad are either conservative when they get here, or become conservative once they stay here."

But there is no remotely accurate way of gauging the party affiliation of overseas Americans, much less how they will vote this year.

"The '50s-era idea that anyone who wasn't in the military overseas was a rich Republican -- we know that's not true anymore, if it was ever true," said Manitta of Democrats Abroad. This year, even disenchanted Republicans are switching party allegiance, she said.

So far, Mary Porchez, a bubbling, blond 48-year-old who hosted the Bush Ellis reception at her elegant Left Bank apartment, is not one of them.

As well-heeled guests sipped champagne nearby, the Los Angeles native voiced doubts about Bush's record, and about four more years of Republican rule.

"There's a lot of social issues I have difficulty with," confessed Porchez, a former model who moved to Paris when she was 20. "The abortion issue, absolutely. Gun control. Stem cell research -- my daughter has juvenile diabetes, and that's our only hope."

She paused.

"I have to say, I'm feeling a little less Republican these days," Porchez said. "But I'm not willing to vote Democrat."

I know the election's gonna be close. Whoever wins, it won't be by much. Not too sure who it'll be, though. I have this feeling that Kerry will win, but I don't know why.

And he may be voted out for lack of president.

Seriously though Mouse, did you see the debates?
If so did your opinion on Kerry evolve in good or bad?

I think Kerry will win because I have hope on the larger number of voters this time, and also because I have none on the polls.
And I also think more people than what is shown in the media know what is really at stake here.

Unfortunately I don't trust that electronic voting booth either If it might ends up the same as in 2000, these machines wouldn't even enable a recount.
Bush rigged the election in 2000... he could be re-defeated again and still be in the Whitehouse next January.

Ponrauil

I'm not gonna claim to be an expert on the 2000 election and the recount stuff - I didn't follow it. I should have, but hindsight is 20/20....So basically, the following opinion I cannot back up, but I thought it important that an additional view was presented.

I've been talking online about the 2000 election mess with some friends, and here's what one said (it wasn't directed at me):

Basically, don't try and hang me out to dry on this one if you want to pick it apart, I don't have an opinion on it that I can back up, like I said, I'm just posting this to get in an extra viewpoint.

Adrian

PS I'm voting. It's not every day you get to thumb your nose at Kerry AND Bush.

my god, Aure, I used to say the same thing ---- unfortunately, I am not so convinced anymore. My friends and family overseas keep asking me what the heck is wrong over here --- I used to defend the people of the US to no ends --- seeing the polls, I am left with nothing but embarrassment. I look around me and for the most part, I see people who think like me, who (I believe) understand and see the truth. People who, due to their profession, know extremely well how government, business and tax issues will directly impact them and their families and employment. We all agree. So, who are the other 50% (or more) that will vote for Bush? I don't get it, I am embarrassed and I get sick thinking about it. I am at a loss for words when my friends ask me 'how stupid/arrogant/ignorant Americans really are.'

totally agree there....


i've posted this before, but here we go again --- it's from a British journalist who gathered and analyzed a ton of information regarding the last election debacle....

http://www.gregpalast.com/columns.cf...f%20Presidency

I also have the audio file of a presentation/reading Palast gave specifically on the Florida issue 4 years ago, called "The best democracy money can buy", if anybody is interested.

Whatever the outcome - the fact that this race is soooo close boggles my mind.....

You don't need to "defend" anybody. I guess Germans know it all, and if people don't agree with them they are "stupid/arrogant/ignorant". Next time just tell them their vote doesn't count.

Bush may not be a great president, but tell me what makes Kerry such a prize, other than the fact he's not Bush. He won't get too far on his "promises" with a republican house/senate. The reason Bush hangs in there, in case you don't pay attention is because people trust him more on the terrorism issue than Kerry who wants to "internationalize" our security and have our military under UN command. He denies it now, but he can't erase what he has said in the past. People don't trust him to do his best to keep this country safe.

Whatever. I'm tired of people putting down others who don't agree with them. Have your own opinions as other people will have theirs. Just because they disagree doesn't make them "ignorant or stupid". Those titles are reserved for people like your friends who think they know what is right and wrong and try to impose what they think on others.

How do YOU have the inside information on why people will vote for/against Bush? YOU are clearly stupid and impressed by alot of stereotyped ********

you might be right, but it is how I feel, I don't like to be confronted with it all the time - particularly since I agree with them...

very true - in fact Germans ARE the superior race and, in fact, are equipped with that 6th sense that unfortunately so many others are lacking (hope you catch my sarcasm).

that is all it takes for me and 50% of the population - he isn't Bush. Additionally, he believes in the concept of 'we are one world', does not push his religious views and questionable morals on me and is against the privatisation of social security (the most moronic idea out there) -- not to mention the many womens and minority issues I relate to.

and that is exactly what scares me about Bush. He completely disregards any international implecations, has done NOTHING in terms of fighting terrorism (in case you haven't paid attention, but Afghanistan is out of control and Bin Laden is living happily after). Over here in Seattle, we just had a step-up in security on our ferry system - step up - a term I use quite loosly as all they did was adding a couple of dogs - dogs I never see when I take the ferry. I think we have the biggest ferry system in teh nation - moving more people from the islands to seattle per day than any other place. Yet, all I do is drive on, pay my fee and go upstairs to get a cup of coffee and enjoy the awsome view of the seattle skyline. I know nothing would be easier to pack a few pounds of dynamite in my trunk and we'd have a blast - literally. What has Bush done about that? Cut the budget on security for the ferry personal -- yeah, I sure feel safer.

I truly do not understand how people can seriously, intellectually argue that Bush did ONE thing to make our country safer, seriously tried to combat terrorism or anything else for that matter. Just don't see it. Enlighten me if you care to. As far as internationalization our security and seek UN help ----- right on. I am at a loss for words to think Bush seriously begged the UN for help in Iraq --- a ****ing mess he put us in with a despicable amount of disrespect for the UN - now that it is about money, he remembers where to get it. *gag*

I've not called anybody ignorant or stupid --- I said I do not understand it. Just as much as my republican friends cannot understand me. That was my whole point. I didn't call them ignorant or stupid --- people from other nations do, and I have no way of defending what is going on because I have no fin clue....as to why.

and are excellent at getting those sunbeds before us english do

but hasnt he stepped up the security on internal and over seas planes? making it safer for you to travel by air? and when you think about it what purpose would it do to blow up a boat? although it would kill some it wouldnt be a major disaster like blowing up a tall building would it? that would have more impact would nt it?
Although no one likes Bush and has brought us into a war that no one wanted, do you trust Kerry? do you realy think he could lead america away from all this troulbe and make the world a safer place? imo i dont think hes got the leader ship skills to cope with it.From what iveseenhe changes hes polices to suit the people that he is talking to.